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Tech School

Block 5

What acts as guidelines and goals for analysts throughout the IC Analytic Standards
What governs the production and evaluation of nat’l intel analysis ICD 203
What are IC’s 5 analytic standards Objectivity, Independent of Political Considerations, Timeliness, Based on all available sources of intel, Exhibits proper standards of analytic tradecraft
Which standard requires analysts to perform their analytic and informational functions from an unbiased perspective Objectivity
What is the ability to logically assess the quality of one’s thinking and the thinking of others to consistently arrive at a greater understanding and achieve intelligent judgments Critical thinking
What are 3 steps in the creative thinking process Accumulation, Incubation, Illumination
What is the final and most important phase in critical thinking where reasoning is applied Verification phase
What is the process of forming new conclusions, judgments, or inferences from facts or premises Reason
What is the systematic application of reason to a particular branch of knowledge Logic
What stage of critical thinking process is when an analyst gathers all the available data on the subject or issue in question Accumulation
What stage of critical thinking process has no set timeline where all the evidence and internal background of the analyst is allowed to ferment in the analyst’s mind Incubation
What stage of critical thinking process is where brainstorming takes place Illumination
What are 3 distinct memory processes Sensory Info Storage, Short-term Memory, Long-term Memory
What holds complete images for several tenths of a second after they are received by sensory organs Sensory Info Storage
What stores only the interpretation of the image Short-term Memory
What info is filed away and must be retrieved before it can be used Long-term Memory
How are memories stored in long-term memory According how they relate to each other
What is a pattern or model which guides our actions and judgments Paradigms
How can paradigms benefit an analyst By establishing boundaries and allowing one to solve problems within these boundaries
What is selectively viewing of the world and events where the evidence is forced to fit and established paradigm Paradigm effect
What occurs when an analyst is unwilling to change their hypothesis even though situations change and evidence contradicts their old paradigm Paradigm paralysis
What is the most desirable ability of an analyst to change from one paradigm to another Paradigm shift
What are 8 elements of reasoning Purpose, Questioning, Information, Concepts, Assumptions, Inference, POV, Implications
Which element of reasoning is the heart and soul of critical thinking Questioning
What are 3 realms of critical questioning Need to continually use critical questions, the interrelationship of critical questions, the need to ask and answer critical questions at the right time
What element of reasoning is the backbone of critical thinking Information
What element of reasoning is the ability to think in different and varied ways Conceptual thinking
What element of reasoning are those things which take the place of known information where there is a lack of actual data Assumptions
What element of reasoning is the act of drawing a conclusion based upon the interpretation of assumptions Inference
What element of reasoning is not guesswork and entails looking at the ends of situations Implications
What are 2 types of reasoning Deductive and Inductive
What is a premise Combo of info, conclusions and assumptions which provide foundation for arguments and hypotheses
Which reasoning involves moving from the general to the specific based upon laws, rules or widely accepted principles Deductive reasoning
Which reasoning involves moving from the specific to the general based upon experiences or observations Inductive reasoning aka generalization
What 2 ways can a deductive argument be expressed Syllogism or generalization
What is an argument expressed in the form of two propositions: major and minor premises Syllogism
What uses particular words such as “and, or, if, then, all, some, is” Basic deductive reasoning
What provides several possible hypotheses and allows for determining the probability of their odds being true Inductive reasoning
Which reasoning is known as the mathematical/classic method Deductive
Which reasoning is known as the scientific method Inductive
What is the study of laws of reasoning Logic
What does logic allow to distinguish between Valid/invalid deductive arguments; strong/weak inductive arguments
What are 4 obstacles to logic and reasoning Fallacies, Groupthink, Biases, Mindsets
What obstacles to logic occur when underlying reasoning is incorrect Informal fallacies
Which informal fallacy results when one action is assessed to lead a chain reaction or subsequent events Slippery slope/domino fallacy
Which informal fallacy is used in public debates False dilemma
Which informal fallacy is attempting to discredit a view by refuting a weaker version Straw person
Which informal fallacy should not be mistaken as proof for a hypothesis Argument form ignorance
Which informal fallacy requires a single answer Complex question
Which informal fallacy is a problem of over simplification False alternatives
Which informal fallacy distracts attention from an issue by introducing an irrelevant issue Red herring
Which informal fallacy is any attempt to discredit a view by calling attention to the character AD hominem
Which informal fallacy is the act of accepting or recommending claim based on the source when there are reasons for doubting the source in question Appeal to authority
Which informal fallacy occurs when one assumes 2 or more things are alike in one respect are also alike in other respects Questionable analogy
Which informal fallacy is also known as circular arguments and is difficult to detect Begging the question
Which informal fallacy occurs when the act of asserting A is the cause of B just because B occurs after A Post hoc
Which informal fallacy is denying a causal relationship Causal determinism
Which informal fallacy occurs in clusters but aren’t random events Clustering illusions
Which informal fallacy is systematic refusal to count anything as evidence against the truth of an empirical statement Priorism
What is exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing and evaluating ideas Groupthink
What is uniformed or unintentional inclination that operates either for or against someone/thing Biases
How do cognitive biases influence us How we estimate probabilities, evaluate evidence and attribute causality
Which cognitive bias constructs his/her own version of reality Perception
Which cognitive bias uses arbitrary values in decision making Anchoring
Which cognitive bias refers to modification and elaboration of new information to fit Assimilation
Which cognitive bias refers to the tendency to overestimate Hindsight
Which cognitive bias is less than reliable but people deal with the info at face value Reliability
Which cognitive bias is excessive optimism Wishful thinking (Pollyanna complex)
Which cognitive bias is excessive skepticism Worst case scenario (Cassandra complex)
Which cognitive bias influence how we think Cultural and personal
What are common cultural and personal biases Ethnocentrism, mirror imaging and prematurely formed views
Which cultural/personal bias is a projection of one’s own values, standards, beliefs Ehnocentrism
Which cultural/personal bias perceiving others as one perceives oneself Mirror imaging
Which cultural/personal bias desires for simplicity and stability Prematurely formed views
Which obstacle to logic and reasoning are patterns of expectations which predispose on to think in certain ways Mindsets
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬What is breaking down of a problem into its component parts, assessing each part separately, and then putting the parts back together again to make a decision? Intelligence analysis
What is the process of evaluating, integrating, and interpreting information to identify new developments or trends, develop alternatives, or forecast outcomes? Analysis
What are intelligence analysis ingredients? Hypotheses, Evidence, Assumptions
What are plausible explanations or answers to your intelligence problem? Hypotheses
What is any observable sign, indicator or datum we feel is relevant in deciding among hypotheses we entertain? Evidence
What 2 things must you know the difference between when evaluating evidence? Fact and Judgment
What is something which exists in objective reality? Fact
What is the opinion an analyst has about the fact? Judgment
What are the “bonds” which connect the facts and other evidence to support a hypotheses? –Assumptions
What makes a good analyst? Integrity, humility, confidence, autonomy, curiosity and research skills, objectivity
What makes a poor analyst? Hypocrisy, arrogance, distrust of reason and evidence, laziness, unfairness, cowardice, close-mindedness and conformity
What are the 8 steps in the intelligence production process? 1.Define the problem 2.General survey 3.Collect data 4.Evaluate sources and evidence 5.Analysis 6.Integrate data 7.Interpret data 8.Present analysis
What do biases and assumptions prevent us from doing? Prevent us from examining other viewpoints and asking if other factors may be significant
What sources shape an analyst’s POV? Points in time, culture, Religion, Gender and Preferences, Disciplines, Peer Groups, Economic interests, Emotional states, Age groups, Professions, Where we live and work
What are interrogative points open to discussion or consideration? Questions
What are the 5 different types of questions? 1.Factual 2.Convergent 3.Divergent 4.Evaluative 5.Combination
What types of questions solicit for reasonably simple, straight forward answers based on obvious facts or awareness? Factual questions
What types of questions have answers that are usually within a very finite range of acceptable accuracy? Convergent questions
What types of questions allow analysts to explore different avenues and create many different variations and alternative answers or scenarios? Divergent questions
What types of questions usually require sophisticated levels of cognitive and/or emotional judgment? Evaluative questions
Define hypotheses? Tentative assumptions made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences.
______cannot be tested but ______ can be tested by observation or experiment and propose answers to questions? Questions, Hypotheses
What are the basic steps of hypotheses generations? Begin with a question, generate alternative answers, and then change the answers into a testable statement
What are analytic tools? 1.Sorting 2.Problem restatement 3.Hypotheses testing 4.Devil’s advocacy 5.Pros, cons and fixes 6.Adversary intentions matrix 7.Analysis of competing hypotheses 8.Analyst notebook
What are grids with as many cells as required to sort data and gain insight? Matrices
What provides an easy means for organizing information? Chronologies and timelines
What 2 steps are used to organize materials in chronologies and timelines? Make a list of relevant events and dates AND Construct a chronology
What are some pitfalls in defining problems? No focus, confuse problems with symptoms, focus is misdirected, statement is assumption or solution driven, problem is stated in a passive voice
What are the 5 techniques for problem restatement? 1.Paraphrase 2.180⁰ 3.Broaden the focus 4.Redirect the focus 5.Ask Why
What attempts to overcome instinctive analytic approaches? Hypotheses testing
What are the 7 steps in hypotheses testing? 1.List hypotheses 2.List evidence 3.Prepare a matrix 4.Refine the matrix 5.Draw tentative conclusions 6.Ranking 7.Sanity check
What tool takes advantage of our natural tendency to focus on a single explanation? Devil’s Advocacy
What technique is designed to counter our natural tendency towards negativity and logically organizes info so it can be analyzed separately, systematically and sufficiently? Pros, cons and fixes
What is the 6 step process in Pros, cons and fixes? 1.List all the pros 2.List all the cons 3.Review and consolidate the cons; merge and delete redundancy 4.Neutralize as many cons as possible 5.Compare pros and cons for all options 6. Pick one option
What technique provides insight from an adversary’s POV on the most important criteria used to determine the impact and implications of likely options under consideration? Adversary intentions matrix
When should the adversary intentions matrix be used? when the most likely and reasonable alternatives under consideration by the adversary are known
What are the 6 steps in the adversary intentions matrix process? 1.Enter decision options believed to be reasonable from the adversary’s viewpoint 2.Fill in Objectives 3.Fill in Benefits from adversary’s viewpoint with benefits 4.Fill in Risk 5.Fill in Implications 6.Enter indicators
What techniques is proven to be highly effective when there is a large amount of data to absorb and evaluate? Analysis of competing hypotheses
How many steps are there in testing competing hypothesis? 8
What is an analytical tool used to perform link analysis on large assets of seemingly unrelated data in order to transform it into actionable intelligence and display it in visual form? Analyst Notebook
What are steps 1-4 in testing competing hypothesis? 1.Identify possible hypotheses to be considered 2.List significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis 3.Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side 4.Refine the matrix
What are steps 5-8 in testing competing hypothesis? 5.Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis 6.Analyze how sensitive conclusions are to few critical items of evidence/assumptions 7.Report conclusions 8.Identify milestones for future observation
Created by: fallsummerspring
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