Stack #155756
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show | productive and quick, does not require meeting with others.consistant set of values and accountability is clear
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show | mistakes based on heuristics and sensory misperceptions
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show | confirming evidence trap, sunk costs trap, framing trap,anchoring trap, Status quo, recallability trap, base rate trap
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show | When considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives. Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments. This mental phenomenon is known as anchoring
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show | This trap is the bias that leads us to seek out information to support our existing point of view while avoiding information that contradicts it.
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show | we seldom question the appropriateness or validity of the anchor in the current situation. We fail to make sufficent adjustments from the anchor to our current estimate. we underestimate the high end of the range and overestimate the low end of the range.
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How do you avoid the anchoring trap? | show 🗑
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show | play devils advocate or ask someone else to.Ask yourself; What's the strongest reason to make a different choice? The second strongest? The third?
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show | We instinctively stay with what seems familiar. Thus we look for decisions that involve the least change. Breaking the status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility, thus opening ourselves up to blame and regret
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show | Remind yourself of your objectives and examine how they would be served by the status quoIdentify other options – don’t assume that there aren’t anyAsk yourself if you would choose the status-quo alternative if it was not the status quoAvoid exaggerating
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Sunk Costs trap? | show 🗑
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How to avoid the sunk costs trap? | show 🗑
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Framing Trap? | show 🗑
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How do you avoid the framing trap? | show 🗑
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show | we belive that we recall frequent events more easily than infrequent ones and likely events more easily than unlikely events
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Problems with the recallability trap | show 🗑
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show | Each time you make an estimate or forcast examine your assumptions to make sure that you are not being unduly swayed by memory distortions. Get direct statistics
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show | The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking sufficient account of the "base rate" or "prior probability" of H.
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How to aviod the base rate fallacy | show 🗑
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Pros and Cons of group decision making | show 🗑
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Common Group decision errors | show 🗑
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Describe organizational culture biases | show 🗑
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Group dynamics | show 🗑
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The abilene paradox | show 🗑
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Components of the Abilene Paradox | show 🗑
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Conditions of Groupthink | show 🗑
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show | failure to examineunderlying assumptions, illusion of invulnerability, believe that the group is inherently moral, rationalize any resistance to their assumptions us v them mentality, self-censorship,mind guards, stop the flow of info, illusion of unanim
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Prevent Groupthink | show 🗑
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Prevent Groupthink | show 🗑
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show | social loafing, self-limiting behavior, conformity, production blocking,downward norm setting
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show | people may be afraid of being negativly perceived because of differing view points
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production blocking, | show 🗑
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downward norm setting, | show 🗑
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show | , pulling yourself from participation out of a lack of interest or because you don't see a payoff
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show | blending in and letting the group do all the work
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show | team diversity: offers conflicting differing view points, analytical reasoning, organizational memory: reduces idea repetition, use trained facilitators, set high bench marks for the number of ideas generated,membership change , and constructive conflict
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Devil's Advocacy Technique | show 🗑
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show | 1)individual analysis 2)RR share idea w/group-no critique 3)each member writes down analysis -to be sure of details 4)discussion q&a 5)vote and rank ideas to reach consensus
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show | 1)Individual or Group decision 2)Is the decision MT or MD driven? time v. development 3)Situational Variables? 4)What type of decision tree? TI TG DI DG?
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show | Quality requirement,Commitment requirement, leaders information, problem structure, commitment probability, goal congruence, Subordinate conflict, subordinate information
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show | QR how important is the technical quality of the decision?
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Commitment requirement, | show 🗑
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show | LI Do I have enough info to make a high quality decision?
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show | ST Is the problem well structured?
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show | CP Will my subordinates be committed to the decision I make?
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goal congruence, | show 🗑
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show | CO Is conflict among subordinates over preferred solutions likely?
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show | SI Do the subordinates have enough info to make a high quality decision?
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show | whether you are dealing with an entrepreneurial or disturbance problem
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show | entrepreneurial problems.
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Decision analysis begins with a decision statement and ends when it is resolved by the answers to | show 🗑
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show | cause and effect
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show | why?
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show | write down three sets of 2 words that best describe your problem or decision then choose the combination that best represents your prob or decis and use those words to write a restatement of the problem.
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show | here you ask why is it necessary? Where should it be done? Who should do it? When should it be done? What should be done? How should it be done? These questions give you a broad understanding of the problem
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Mind Focus | show 🗑
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show | use analogies or metaphors to put something you don’t know in terms you do know. Ask what is this situation like? This distortion can lead to new insights that can then be applied to our real problems
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Problem Reversal | show 🗑
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SCAMPERing | show 🗑
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show | What triggered the event? Constraints? Essential elements? What decisions affect this one? workable scope? Insight from others? iterative process-as u gain more info
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Created by:
kinah2009
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