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Stack #155756

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Pros of individual decision making   show
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show mistakes based on heuristics and sensory misperceptions  
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show confirming evidence trap, sunk costs trap, framing trap,anchoring trap, Status quo, recallability trap, base rate trap  
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show When considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives. Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments. This mental phenomenon is known as anchoring  
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What is the confirming evidence trap   show
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show we seldom question the appropriateness or validity of the anchor in the current situation. We fail to make sufficent adjustments from the anchor to our current estimate. we underestimate the high end of the range and overestimate the low end of the range.  
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How do you avoid the anchoring trap?   show
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show play devils advocate or ask someone else to.Ask yourself; What's the strongest reason to make a different choice? The second strongest? The third?  
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show We instinctively stay with what seems familiar. Thus we look for decisions that involve the least change. Breaking the status quo means taking action, and when we take action, we take responsibility, thus opening ourselves up to blame and regret  
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How do we avoid the status quo trap?   show
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Sunk Costs trap?   show
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show Seek feedback from those who were uninvolved in the earlier decision. Examine why admitting a past mistake distresses you. Be on the lookout for the influence of sunk-cost biases in subordinates’ decisions and recommendations. Don’t cultivate a failure-  
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Framing Trap?   show
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How do you avoid the framing trap?   show
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show we belive that we recall frequent events more easily than infrequent ones and likely events more easily than unlikely events  
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Problems with the recallability trap   show
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show Each time you make an estimate or forcast examine your assumptions to make sure that you are not being unduly swayed by memory distortions. Get direct statistics  
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Base rate trap?   show
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show pay attention only to relevant data. avoid mixing up one type of probability statement with another type of probability statement  
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Pros and Cons of group decision making   show
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Common Group decision errors   show
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Describe organizational culture biases   show
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show communications, group size, conflict handling,and group cohesion  
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show Abilene paradox is a paradox in which a group of people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of any of the individuals in the group. It involves a common breakdown of group communication in which each member mistake  
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Components of the Abilene Paradox   show
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Conditions of Groupthink   show
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show failure to examineunderlying assumptions, illusion of invulnerability, believe that the group is inherently moral, rationalize any resistance to their assumptions us v them mentality, self-censorship,mind guards, stop the flow of info, illusion of unanim  
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Prevent Groupthink   show
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Prevent Groupthink   show
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5 problems with brainstorming   show
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show people may be afraid of being negativly perceived because of differing view points  
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show may forget your idea as you are waiting for your turn to speak  
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downward norm setting,   show
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show , pulling yourself from participation out of a lack of interest or because you don't see a payoff  
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show blending in and letting the group do all the work  
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Techniques used to overcome brainstorming problems   show
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show 1)group generates a potential solution 2)group assigns a devil's advocate 3)advocate critiques the solution 4)group generates more information 5)they decide to change to use or not use the solution  
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show 1)individual analysis 2)RR share idea w/group-no critique 3)each member writes down analysis -to be sure of details 4)discussion q&a 5)vote and rank ideas to reach consensus  
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show 1)Individual or Group decision 2)Is the decision MT or MD driven? time v. development 3)Situational Variables? 4)What type of decision tree? TI TG DI DG?  
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Eight situational variables   show
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show QR how important is the technical quality of the decision?  
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show CR How important is subordinate commitment to the decision?  
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leaders information,   show
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show ST Is the problem well structured?  
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show CP Will my subordinates be committed to the decision I make?  
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goal congruence,   show
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Subordinate conflict,   show
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subordinate information   show
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The first step in creating a decision statement is to identify   show
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Decision analysis=   show
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Decision analysis begins with a decision statement and ends when it is resolved by the answers to   show
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Problem analysis= disturbance problems or   show
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show why?  
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Use mind grip to frame your initial problem/decision statement   show
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show here you ask why is it necessary? Where should it be done? Who should do it? When should it be done? What should be done? How should it be done? These questions give you a broad understanding of the problem  
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show Why Why why?  
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show  
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show use analogies or metaphors to put something you don’t know in terms you do know. Ask what is this situation like? This distortion can lead to new insights that can then be applied to our real problems  
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show reverse cause and effect or replace key words with antonyms in order to trigger insight  
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show S-Substitute C-Combine A-Adopt M-Magnify or Modify P-Put to other uses E-Eliminate R-Rearrange or Reverse  
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Problem Diagnosis   show
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