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Big boy IR

final frontier

Nuclear Deterrence Neither side will fire a bomb, if you fire one at us we'll fire all of ours at you,
MAD Mutually assured destruction. you fire one we fire em all
H-Bomb Uses fusion, mo' powerful, US get deliverable '54 soviets 53
After hiroshima US is the only super power and can use the bomb on anyone but doesn't. later russia get's it
Effects of nukes Fission device, known effect: 7000F heat 3-4 mile blast radius radiation Unknown effects: nuclear winter(dust blocks out the sun, electronic pulse oceans 11)
Manhatten project endorsed by fdr to make the bomb, captured german scientists helped US make it, trinity was the first detonation
Clauswitz Say that Military and govt should be seperated, war is politics by other means. it is rational and goal orientated
Democratic peace theory democracies are less likely to fight was/ not well supported democracies are less likely to fight wars against other democracies
Perception, misperception, Rationale: Ways Individual Decision-Makers Diverge from Rationality How you see things affect how decisions are made • Perceptions and misperceptions are rational, but depend on the individual
Affect, or Affective Bias: Ways Individual Decision-Makers Diverge from Rationality How individuals feel, like, or dislike • We are more likely to deal favorably with people we like whether or not they are good.
Cognitive Bias: : Ways Individual Decision-Makers Diverge from Rationality How you think
Wishful thinking a cognitive bias: hoping things will work out
Mirror image thinking the enemy would do what you would do buy disregarding there personal experinces
historical analogy comparing one event to another, munich analogy:never appease vietnam analogy: war is a quagmire
enemy image see the enemy only as an enemy
Rational model allisons model Assumes the process is rational and predictable 1. Clarify goals 2. which goal are most important (clarify 3. List alternative policies 4. Investigate consequences of likely policies 3. Select the “Best” or most rational policy
Bureaucratic/ govt model allison diff agencies with competing interest fight over stuff to make decision
Organizational process model allison uses standard operation procedure to make decisions
Govt mangement model not allison 1 everyone give opinion 2 reduce everything to a decision 3 reduced group of dm most trusted advisors only decide among the given decisions dont make new ones
nixon kissinger not allison leader has interest in fp, leader and advisor agree on fp, domestic and international allow leaders to make fp decisions (no advising from the cabinet
Groupthink individuals side with one as opposed to voicing their one opinions
bounded rationality can't be completely rational because all things are limited
satificing good enough not the best out come
War violence carried out by military's of states indorsed/ declared by govt
hegemonic war war over global control
total war war to capture the enemies capital and take land/take over govt
limited war single/limited objectives, raids and such
civil war seek control of the state govt by one group in the state or seeking to seceded from a state
guerrilla war waging war hidden and protected by civilians
terrorism criminal acts against civilians in order to intimidate the population into doing what u want is rational not like war no goals no
Over determined every cause can be scrutinized and every cause can be justified
WWI august 1924, major actors: russian germany britan france austria-hungary
WW1 history naploleonic wars end 1815 no germany no italy A-H weak after the wars russia's big and hard to control uk is doing work around the world still powerful money and guns prussia small divided great military
bismark did everything to increase prussia's power
July crisis the archduke is killed, AH goes after serbia, AH gives them a over 200 demands they must meet or they'll go to war, AH looks for support from germany and they give them teir full support
james joll war was multi causal and if anything was stopped the war wouldn't have happened
plan 17 All of the french military is on the germany borders to fight them and capture berlin
german encirclement france and russia are allies surrounding germany
cult of offense attack and that's it. france does it first everyone copies
deterrence trying to get the enemy not to do something by threatening them
when did the us get it's first nuke 1945
when did the soviet union get their first nuke 1949
Created by: 543707438