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Percog: Decision

Perception and Cognition - Decision Making

QuestionAnswer
What are the two dual system of reasoning? Associative system and Rule-based system.
What is associative system? It is anything associated with each other. It employs temporal and similarity to draw inference and make prediction. Does not reason base on causal structure. Related to behaviourist principle.
Examples of associative system Criterion S - Includes simultaneous contradictory belief
What is rule-based system? Operates on variables and rules.
Exhibits ability of? Productivity, Compositionality, Systematicity.
Productivity Generate indefinite number of sentences
Compositionality Understanding a complex sentence rest upon understanding its component constituent
Systematicity Understanding or production of certain sentence entails understanding or production of other related sentence
Heuristic and Bia Approach Understanding that human reasoning isn't always logical or rational and most of the time is based on educated guesswork and rules of thumbs.
Name 10 heuristics and biases Availability heuristic, Anchoring bias, Affect heuristic, Above-average heuristic, Bias by framing, Base rate neglect, Hindsight bias, Small sample fallacy, Representative heuristic, regression heuristic
Availability heuristic Frequency of an event is influenced by the ease of which a salient example can be recalled E.g. More words starting with 'K' or with 'k' in the third position? More death resulting from hurricanes or medical personnel mistakes?
Anchoring bias Tendency of people to rely too heavily on one single trait or information when making decision E.g. People tend to estimate answer of 10x9x8x7x6x5 larger than 5x6x7x8x9x10.
Affect heuristic Reasoning is clouded by emotion E.g I feel good today to I will donate $50. I don't feel good today do I shall not donate anything.
Above average effect Widespread tendency of people to categorise themselves as 'above average' E.g. 95% of drivers will rate themselves as 'above average' drivers
Bias by framing Tendency to reach conclusion based on the 'framework' which a situation is presented E.g. 75% lean mean or 25% fat?
Base rate neglect In judging probable outcome, prior probability of an event is downplayed or ignored because it is taken to be less representative than likelihood probability E.g. Probability of getting cancer
Hindsight bias Probability of an event is exaggerated after it has already happened E.g. I always knew that she would win!
Small sample fallacy Belief that small and large sample should be equally reliable E.g. Generalisation from asking friends
Representative heuristic Appeal to stereotype or most likely occurrence without taking into accounts Bayesian calculation E.g. He has tattoo all over his body = he must be a gangster! Run!
Regression bias General failure to appreciate regression to the mean E.g. Pain subsided after I visit the doctor = the doctor's treatment must have worked.
Why do we have heuristics and bias? Generally we have limited processing capabilities. Associative system quickly proposes an intuitive decision based on heuristic and biases. Although rule-based system can override associative system via operation, it is more resource intensive.
Evolutionary terms, Bayesian's reasoning. We are poor at thinking about possibilities. Human beings were evolved to process uncertainty in terms of frequencies rather than probabilities.
Unbounded rationality Accounts of human reasoning in which reasoning is considered without any regards to form of constraint
Bounded rationality Accounts of human reasoning in which reasoning is is best understand by taking into consideration basic performance limitations bounded by limited attention, memory
Satisficing Adopting solution/decision to a problem that simply works even though it might not be most optimal solution/decision.
Created by: predictability