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Biases: Probability

Many of these biases are often studied for how they affect business and economic

QuestionAnswer
Ambiguity effect the avoidance of options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".
Anchoring the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
Attentional bias neglect of relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association.
Authority bias the tendency to value an ambiguous stimulus (e.g., an art performance) according to the opinion of someone who is seen as an authority on the topic.
Availability heuristic estimating what is more likely by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples.
Availability cascade a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
Clustering illusion the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist.
Capability bias The tendency to believe that the closer average performance is to a target, the tighter the distribution of the data set.
Conjunction fallacy the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.
Hawthorne effect the tendency of people to perform or perceive differently when they know that they are being observed.
Hindsight bias sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the inclination to see past events as being predictable.
Illusory correlation beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect.
Ludic fallacy the analysis of chance related problems according to the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games, ignoring the non-gaussian distribution of many real-world results.
Neglect of prior base rates effect the tendency to neglect known odds when reevaluating odds in light of weak evidence.
Observer-expectancy effect when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).
Optimism bias the systematic tendency to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.
Ostrich effect ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.
Overconfidence effect excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of question, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.
Positive outcome bias a tendency in prediction to overestimate the probability of good things happening to them (see also wishful thinking, optimism bias, and valence effect).
Pareidolia vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) are perceived as significant, e.g., seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon, and hearing hidden messages on records played in reverse.
Primacy effect the tendency to weigh initial events more than subsequent events.
Recency effect the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peak-end rule).
Disregard of regression toward the mean the tendency to expect extreme performance to continue.
Reminiscence bump the effect that people tend to recall more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than from other lifetime periods.
Rosy retrospection the tendency to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.
Selection bias a distortion of evidence or data that arises from the way that the data are collected.
Stereotyping expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.
Subadditivity effect the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.
Subjective validation perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.
Telescoping effect the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.
Texas sharpshooter fallacy fallacy of selecting/adjusting hypothesis after data is collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis fairly. Refers to concept of firing shots at barn door, drawing circle around best group, declaring that target
Gambler's fallacy tendency to think future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of normal distribution. "I've flipped heads five times consecutively, so chance of tails greater sixth time"
Created by: brysmi
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