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CogPsych ~13

Chapter 13: Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning

What is decision making? The process of making choices between alternatives.
What is reasoning? The cognitive process of drawing conclusions, starting with the initial information and coming to conclusions beyond the initial information
What is the dual systems approach to thinking, as proposed by Kahneman (2003)? System 1: associative system that operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control System 2: rule-based system that allocates attention to effortful mental resources; agency, choice and concentration
What are the characteristics of System 1 in the dual systems approach to thinking? 1. Employs temporal and similarity relations to draw inferences and make predictions 2. Occurs automatically, non-effortful, often in parallel 3. Does not reason on basis of causal structure
What are the characteristics of System 2 in the dual systems approach to thinking? 1. Slow and controlled processing 2. Serial and effortful, requires a lot of cognitive resources 3. Rule based: operates with variables and rules (e.g., if variable x is satisfied, then the action to be taken will be variable y) - causal reasoning
What is Criterion S, as proposed by Sloman (1996)? The criterion that provides evidence for dual systems for processing, which includes the ability for a person to hold two mutually contradictory solutions - two reasoning systems operate simultaneously but lead to diverging outcomes
What is deductive reasoning? Determining whether a conclusion logically follows from statements called premises.
What are syllogisms? A syllogism consists of two premises followed by a third statement called the conclusion.
What were the only syllogisms that we were taught about? Categorical syllogisms and conditional syllogisms.
What are categorical syllogisms? Premises and conclusion describes relationships between two categories by using statements that begins with all, no, or some
What is a valid syllogism? Where the conclusion follows logically from its two premises.
What is truth? Refers to the content of the syllogism.
What is a conditional syllogism? A syllogism where the first premise is in the form of "If p then q", and where the second premise is in the form of either occurrence or non-occurrence of p or q.
What does p and q stand for? P is the antecedent, while Q is the consequent.
What are the valid conditional syllogisms? 1. Affirming the antecedent/modus ponens (If p, then q. p. therefore, q.) 2. Denying the consequent/modus tollens (If p, then q. not q. therefore, not p.)
Describe Wason's (1994) card problem. Subjects presented a set of cards labelled E K 4 7 and given the rule "If vowel then even number". They were to indicate which cards to turn over to test the rule.
What were the results of the original Wason (1966) card problem? 53% stated E must be turned over, correct. However, 46% also stated 4 had to be turned over, wrong. 7 should be turned over instead.
What is the falsification principle? To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
Why is the beer/drinking-age version of Wason's problem easier to solve? It involves regulations people are familiar with according to Griggs and Cox (1982).
What is a permission schema, as defined by Cheng & Holyoak (1985)? If a person satisfies a specific condition, then he she gets to carry out an action.
How is the permission schema applied to the Wason card problem beer variant? Activating the permission schema helps people focus attention on the card that would test that schema. Subjects' attention is attracted to the "16 years old" because they know that "Beer" on the other side would be violating the rule- must be 19 to drink.
Evolutionary psychologists suggest that a built-in cognitive program for detecting cheating might explain performance on the Wason problem. What is their explanation? People who can avoid cheating behaviour will have a better chance of surviving, so "detecting cheating" has become a part of the brain's cognitive makeup.
What is inductive reasoning? Reasoning based on observations, or reaching conclusions from evidence.
What are the characteristics of inductive reasoning? 1. In inductive reasoning, conclusions are suggested with varying degrees of certainty but do not definitely follow from premises 2. Validity is not considered. 3. Arguments are based on strength of evidence.
What are the 3 factors affecting the strength of an inductive argument? 1. Representativeness of observation: How well do the observations of a category reflect all members of that category? 2. Number of observations 3. Quality of evidence: e.g. adding scientific descriptions etc.
What is the relationship between inductive reasoning, judgments and decisions? Inductive reasoning forms the basis for making judgments and choices. Decisions are based on judgments we make, and applying these judgments can involve inductive reasoning processes.
What is the purpose of inductive reasoning? It provides the mechanism for using past experience to guide present behaviour.
WHat are heuristics? Rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof.
What is the heuristics and biases approach in inductive reasoning? When people use past experience to guide present behavior, they often use shortcuts to help them reach conclusions rapidly. It understands that human reasoning is not logical and rational, but based on educated guesswork and rules of thumb: heuristics.
What is the availability heuristic? It states that events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.
What is the anchoring heuristic? It states numerical estimates are biased by a numerical context. People make estimates by starting from their initial value and adjusting it; these adjustments, however, are often insufficient.
What is the representativeness heuristic? It states that the probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the properties of A resembles the properties we usually associate with class B. People judge hypothesis by seeing resemblances to available data w/o Bayesian calc.
What are the two causes of the representativeness heuristics? Base-rate neglect and small sample-size fallacy
What is base-rate neglect? In judging a possible outcome, the prior possibility of a given event is either downplayed or ignored.
What is a base rate? The relative proportion of different classes in the population.
What is the small sample-size fallacy? Participants fail to appreciate sample size when judging representativeness. People often assume that representativeness holds for small samples (i.e. samples represent the population), and this results in errors in reasoning.
What is one example of the small sample-size fallacy? The gambler's fallacy: After coin tosses, tails would be likely.
What is framing? A cognitive bias that affects decision making by presenting the same information in a different format.
What is framing affected by? Background context and wording of the problem scenario.
Why is decision-making affected by framing? Framing highlights certain features of the scenario and de-emphasizes others.
How is decision-making generally affected by framing? When a choice is framed in terms of gains, people use a risk-aversion strategy (to maximize gains), and when a choice is framed in terms of losses, people use a risk-taking strategy (to avoid losses)
What is the decoy effect? When choosing between two alternatives, the presence of a third alternative tends to increase the decision-maker's preference for one of the first two alternatives.
What is default heuristics or status quo bias? People tend to stick with the default settings assigned to them and not make any changes when making a decision.
Why do people have a status quo bias? 1. Effort is required to make changes 2. Avoiding regret from making a decision (omission bias).
What is the endowment effect? People tend to value things that they own much higher than things that they do not
What is the fluency effect? If one choice is processed faster, it is inferred that this choice has higher value
What is one criticism of decision-making as studied? Conducted in artificial settings and does not consider expertise and tacit knowledge
What is naturalistic decision-making? see tutorial and report back
What is one evolutionary claimed reason for why humans are bad at Bayesian inferencing? Humans were evolved to process uncertainty in terms of frequencies rather than probabilities
What is one criticism of the dual systems theory of reasoning? It assumes that system 2 is superior to system 1. Some consider this an artificial distinction that does not consider evolutionary history of human beings
What is bounded rationality? Accounts of human reasoning in which reasoning is best understood by taking into consideration basic performance limitations
What is unbounded rationality? Accounts of human reasoning in which reasoning is considered without any regards to any forms of constraints
According to the dual systems theory, what are heuristics for? They give us a good-enough decision-making style that works most of the time.
Why are heuristics preferred, considering bounded rationality? They place a low demand on limited cognitive resources.