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Decision Making II

Heuristic Decision Making

What are heuristics? Shortcuts or rules of thumb that usually have some basis in reality. Simple and efficient but not foolproof.
Define Availability Heuristic. Judge the likelihood of an event according to the case with which examples come to mind. Events that are easily remembered are judged more likely.
When Ss were asked if words that being with "r" are more common than words with "r" in the third position, what were the results? 70% say words starting with "r" are more common, but in reality 3x more words with "r" in the third position.
What were the results of McElvie's (1997) famous name experiment? The Ss believed the famous group to be larger but the nonfamous group was actually larger.
What is illusory correlation? Belief that there is a relationship when there is none (or it's weaker than believed)& selective attention plays a role.
Define representativeness heuristic Judge the likelihood that an event belongs to a class according to how much we think it resembles the class (i.e., judge according to representativeness or typicality). Judge the similarity of events under uncertainty.
Importance of judgments involving sample size. insensitivity to sample size leads to inaccurate judgments.
When judging sequences, we can often fall victim to the gambler's fallacy. What is this exactly? The belief that unexpected behaviors or outcomes will be “evened out” by opposite unexpected behaviors or outcomes later on.
What is the base rate effect (fallacy)? Occurs when we make judgments ignoring relevant prior knowledge.
Created by: cassidylm34
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