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Psych 318

Exam 1

QuestionAnswer
Default Heuristic Tendency to continue a course of action once it's been chosen even if it's harmful.
Incomplete Thinking People tend to not make decisions based on thorough process of the Decision tree. They focus on one or two nodes and reason extensively on those nodes, but incompletely about the whole tree.
Sunk Cost Fallacy Making a decision about a course of action based on prior investments that led up to that course of action. Violates 1st criteria.
Lens Model of Human Judgment Description of a judgment problem for a person who can observe cues to give indications of an unobserved "true State" of the world.
When you know the criterion and can model it directly: Simple Linear model of the criterion
Why Statistical models outperform human Judges 1. Human judgment is affected by internal Random variation. 2.People have a great deal of difficulty integrating complex information such as focusing on more than one aspect of a stimulus or situation. 3.Human judgment is affected by individual cases.
Why Statistical models outperform human Judges con't 4. Humans try to fit information into a story.
System 1 Operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort or voluntary control.
System 2 Gives more attention to effortful mental activities that demand it including complex computations. In charge of monitoring and controlling thoughts and behavior.
How system 1 and system 2 interact They both worth together to minimize effort and maximize efficiency. System 1 gives basic premise to system 2 and system 2 will turn those intuitions and impressions into voluntary actions.
Two mechanisms underlying the Anchoring Effect 1. Insufficient Adjustment 2. Accessability (thru priming) of anchor related information.
Priming Effects Ideas that have been evoked, trigger other related ideas through the spreading cascade of brain activity. "spreading activation"
Insufficient Adjustment Range of uncertainty-you are likely to stop at the beginning of ROU when you are no longer sure you should go farther. Conservatism in the adjustment process. Is a system 2 phenomenon.
Accessabiltity (thru priming) of anchor related information System 1 phenomenon. Anchor influences what information is retrieved from memory. concepts activated by the anchor influence which concepts are activated.
Anchoring on yourself Ppl anchor on their own opinions and values and then adjust to take into account other ppls differences.
Expected Value theory Making a decision based on the expected value. Probability x amount to be won
Expected utility theory Make decision based on highest utility (satisfaction) outcome. Probability x Utility What matters is the subjective utility not the objective utility.
Marginal Utility The amount that utility increases with an increase of one unit of an economic good or service.
1st Criteria of a Rational decision It is based on the decision maker's current assets
2nd criteria of a rational decision It is based on the possible consequences of the choice
3rd Criteria of a rational decision When the consequences are uncertain, their likelihood is evaluated according to the basic rule of probablity theory.
4th Criteria of a Rational Decision It is a choice that is adaptive within the constraints of those probabliities and the values or satisfactions associated with each possible consequence of the choice.
Rational expectations Principle Decisions can be computed on expected utilities of all alternative courses of action. Sum x (probability x Utility)
Decision tree calculations assume: decisions can be described using numerical values and probabilty. decision making process uses arithmatic to decribe the decision makers thought process. That the decision maker takes into account all poss options, consequences, contingencies in the tree.
Components of a decision 2 or more courses of action. Uncertainty about events that will affect the relative outcomes. Pos & Neg consequences contigent on events are determined by current goals and personal values.
Created by: janyaogu
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