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PSY 365
Modeling Creative Productivity
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Quantity | the number of things we produce |
| Quality | the value of the work also matters |
| How do we study this? | historiometric methods- "facts of history have been subjected to statistical treatment according got some method of measurement more or less objective or impersonal in nature" |
| Harvey Lehmann: major book in 1953, across many disciplines examined the year the best work was produced (quality) | found different "peak ages" for different disciplines -specifically, the shorter the work, the earlier the best work tended to appear |
| Simonton's (1983) Production Curve | works produced (quantity) forms an "inverted J" -productivity goes up until the person reaches their "peak" -then productivity goes down |
| Campbell (1960) "Blind Selection, selective retention" | -BSSR= ideas chosen quasi-randomly; only good ones last -The idea is you can't know what a good idea is until it's tried in the court of expert opinion |
| Darwinian | evolution if also "undirected" -life mutates randomly, and mutations that "work" are retained |
| Simonton's (1983) Model: has a model based on BSSR to produce his J-curve: 3 parameters for each creator: | 1. Potential (m) 2. Ideation (a) 3. Elaboration (b) |
| Potential (m) | more m means a person is more creative-will produce more stuff in life |
| Ideation (a) | more a means the person thinks up ideas to try faster |
| Elaboration ( b) | more b means the person fully works out the details of ideas faster (producing it) |
| Simonton's Theory of Creativity | you produce ideas until you "use up" your m ideas -Equal Odds Rule |
| Equal Odds Rule | any piece equally likely to be good, so creativity depends only on the number of things you make |
| Hit Ratio | probability that a work is a "major" work of "hit" -Simonton (1977): for 10 classical composers, hit ratio was the same across their lifespan |
| Kozbelt (2008): Equal Odds Is Wrong | instead of "hit ratio" (basically, m) let's consider people's "hit ratio trajectory" -found 65 composers, accounting for 80% of all classical music performed -15, 657 pieces -used HLM to model the data |
| Creativity, Age, and Productivity | productivity and probability of making eminent contributions drop with age (Lehman/ Simonton) -however, the peak age varies across disciplines -size of the "unit" of discovery predicts this peak and it is expressed mostly in the b parameter |
| HLM Analysis: Career Age=age of 1st masterpiece -DV=hit ratio in a 5 yr period | a "hit" was based on expert opinion about being a masterwork and recording counts -Level 1 variables apply to works: age linear, age quadratic, health status |
| HLM Analysis: Level 2 variables-apply to a composer | 1. Birth year 2. Eminence (based on # of mentions in books) 3. Career Span (yrs. from first to last work) 4. Career age at best work (quality peak) 5. Evenness of output (a measure of whether you wrote in all genres or not) |
| Multiple Versions of the Analysis | 1. hit ratio over the entire career 2. hit ratio only for the "mature period" 3. Hit ratio only for the "mature period" and removing their greatest hit -Mostly, they turned out the same |
| Level 1 Results | -Eminence: made the rise steeper -Career Span: made the rise shallower -Evenness of Output: more even= steeper rise -when looking at only mature periods, they also found that age at best work predicted a faster rise-even when you removed the best work |
| Conclusion's: Kozbelt (2008a) | although people who produce more works produce more hits -the hit rate goes up over time consistent with the expertise view. Equal odds is wrong. -this is particularly true for more eminent composers and people with short careers |
| Galenson's (2001) Theory | used auction price of paintings to assess when a person's work was most creative -Cezanne's Paintings are worth more as he got older; Picasso peaked early, with late work not as valuable |
| 2 Types of Creative People according to Galenson | -Finders (conceptually-oriented): rebel against tradition and tend to peak young-Picasso -Seekers (experimentally-oriented): grope their way through the creative process and peak later-Cezanne |
| Kozbelt's (2011) Analysis | note career age is 0 at age 18ish, so peak is= 56 yrs. old -just 1 peak |
| Kozbelt (2008b) | studied classical composers with only 1 "hit" -Albinoni, Pachelbel et cetera -compared to multi-hit composers |
| One Hit Wonders (1HW): Most were in areas of music that peak younger and have simpler structure | more single-voice vocal hits than choral hits -In opera, tendency for only one piece in the opera to be important -tended to work only in 1 area of music -maybe are just lucky-hard to be lucky with longer, more complex pieces |
| Multi-hit composers worked in | many areas |
| Drop-Off in Productivity with Age: Causes? Krampe and Ericsson (1994): looked at aging musicians who were still working | Found the usual drop-off with age but -true only for those who practice less with age -many senior people switch from working to teaching, and practice less -suggests the drop-off with age is an artifact |
| Access and Productivity: Things Affecting Acesss | Wealth: you can buy your way in -Consider: expertise in sports like ice skating -being in the right community/ good teachers |
| Syed (2014): weirdly large # of ping-pong top stars from his neighborhood. Why? | -"musical families" and "artistic families" and "scientific families" may not all be genetics -RAE: Relative Age Effect |
| RAE: Relative Age Effect | "Gifted" students and athletes are more likely to be born right after an arbitrary cut-off -this makes them older than the other kids -more knowledge, more real-world practice -physically bigger, more developed -Investing in them makes them better |
| RAE and Professional Athletes, Barnsley: over half of NHL players born in Jan. Feb. and March | 9 to 12 months older than other children at start of 1st season -more likely to be picked and thus to practice and play in games -younger kids more likely to drop out and thus not practice |
| Learning and Relative Age: Cobley et al. (2009): 692 English middle schoolers (11-14 yrs.) took national standards tests in gym, math, and science, broken out by grade and relative age | Sep.-Nov. twice as likely to be in gifted classes as Jun.-Aug. -Sep.-Nov. half as likely to be in special ed as Jun.-Aug. |
| RAE in the U. S Congress: Muller and Page (2016) | were congress people born before vs. after the cut-off date for school in their birth state? |
| Early Maturation and RAE in Sports: Sweeney et al. (2023) looked at early maturation in elite Irish Soccer kids (age 13-16) and the RAE | got the RAE and more "mature" players were strongly favored -the maturation effect was bigger than the RAE with most being "early" and very few being "late" maturing |
| Revisiting "Giftedness" | adults view kids as "gifted" when they are more mature than other kids in their class -picking them can make them become gifted -opportunities, resources, practice |
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