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Climate Systems

TermDefinition
Observational evidence for climate change 1. Global temperature graph 1880-2024, although has interannual variability it is steadily increasing at an alarming rate 2. Increase in ocean heat content 3. Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet 4. Decrease in spring snow cover
Global temperature graph 1880-2024 Look at reference doc
Climate Forcings Mechanism that alters the energy balance
What are natural climate forcing components? 1. Solar luminosity variations - Sunspots: dark areas on the radiating surface of the sun surrounded by very bright Faculae 2. Volcanic eruptions
How can volcanoes affect climate? Volcanoes eject aerosols that reflect sunlight that increases the albedo cool climate. An example is sulfur gasses in the stratosphere, above altitude of scavenging rain (aerosols in the troposphere are washed out in a few weeks).
Under what conditions do volcanoes have maximum impact? Minimum impact? Not all volcano eruptions effect climate though, depends on timing, location, and eruption type - Maximum impact: explosive eruptions, sulfur-rich, tropics - Minimum impact: effusive eruptions, sulfur-poor, higher latitude
Explosive volcanoes (maximum impact) Silica-rich lavas have high viscosity and flow poorly, leading to more explosive eruptions. If volatile content (water, CO2) in magma is high, the eruptions are more explosive as this lowers the density increases pressure as they exsolve during ascent.
Effusive Eruptions (minimum impact) Silica-poor lavas have low viscosity, allowing them to flow easily and create gentle lava flows. Does not create much of an ash cloud if any at all.
Ash Clouds Explosive eruptions would produce more explosive ash clouds rather than lava flow, as the magma would have undergone rapid decompression
For how long does typically a single volcanic eruption affect climate and why? 1-2 years because of the injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere which forms sulfate aerosols -> above the altitude of scavenging rain -> rain doesn’t wash it away like it does in the troposphere
Explosive volcanic eruptions as proof of fast-response climate change due to forcing Explosive volcanoes specifically cause global cooling of about 0.6 C for 1-2 years. Pinatubo Eruption has served to test the reliability of numerical climate models.
What are anthropogenic climate forcing components? 1. Anthropogenic (tropospheric) aerosols 2. Land cover changes (deforestation) 3. Greenhouse gases
What are aerosols atmospheric particles (sulphate, dust, soot, sea salt, etc.)
What is the role of aerosols in the climate system? They effect Earth’s energy budget by 1. Scattering and absorbing radiation 2. Modifying amounts of microphysical and radiative properties of clouds 3. Net cooling effect -> has offset part of greenhouse warming
Consequences of the cooling from aerosols While aerosols temporarily have a cooling effect, after their fall from the stratosphere or are rained out of the troposphere, the global temperature will experience a drastic rebound.
What is the net radiative effect of land use change? 1. Increase in surface albedo, net cooling 2. Deforestation and human habitation alter the planet’s surface, changing surface albedo and evapotranspiration rates
Global climate forcings graph A= GHG emissions, drastic increase B= ozone, net warming C= Solar Luminosity variations, cyclical every year D= volcanic eruptions, abrupt, net cooling E= Indirect Aerosols, net cooling effect F= Direct Aerosols, net cooling effect
Sketch the global temperature of the earth over the past 100 years. How much has the earth warmed over this time period? increase of 1.2 C
What factors caused variations in temperature over the past 100 years? What are the main forcing components? 1. GHGs, anthropogenic aerosols, land use changes, solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions 2. Main forcing components: greenhouse gasses, aerosols, land use changes
Describe the variations in temperature over the past 1000 years? Natural variability followed by a sharp and unprecedented rise in recent centuries. - hockey stick graph
How would you reconstruct the temperature variability over the past 1000 years? (what proxy, what archive?) Tree rings because they have annual data -> very high definition
What caused the cooling – or lack of warming – during the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s? 1. Increased air pollution -> increased aerosols -> increased planetary albedo 2. Clean air act passed in 1963
What is a greenhouse gas? GHG are compounds that have complex structures that able to vibrate at frequencies that match wavelengths of IR radiation. When IR is emitted from Earth's surface, it can excite these vibrations and cause the molecule to absorb this energy.
Explain the effect of greenhouse gases and their underlying chemical/physical properties. This energy is then re-emitted by these molecules in all directions, so some is re-radiated back to earth's surface. This traps energy within the climate systems. With more GHG, more energy is trapped, increasing temperature on Earth.
How do greenhouse gases trap heat? Vibration -> to absorb the heat it has to vibrate at the same frequency of the IR spectrum
For approximately which period of time do we have direct measurements of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations? Where have they been measured? Since 1958 up to the present – Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
Where can CO2 be sequestered (name methods and reservoirs)? 1. Ocean (biological pump) 2. Sediments (weathering of rocks) 3. Atmosphere (more of a temporary reservoir) 4. Plants and soil (photosynthesis)
What causes the seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over one year? In the spring and summer, plants grow and photosynthesize, removing CO2 from the atmosphere -> CO2 levels drop 2. In the fall and winter, plants die and decay, slowing photosynthesis -> respiration and decomposition release CO2 -> CO2 levels rise
Is the nature of the seasonal atmospheric CO2 cycle natural or anthropogenic? Natural
Is the seasonal cycle in the southern hemisphere more or less pronounced than in the northern hemisphere? Northern Hemisphere because it has much more land cover à more vegetation
What is the concentration of Carbon Dioxide (in ppm) at present and what was it at the beginning of the industrial age? Current: 430ppm; Preindustrial: 280ppm (double)
What causes the increase of CO2 over the past 250 years? 1. Fossil fuel combustion beginning with the Industrial Revolution 2. Land use changes
How much higher is the current CO2 concentration than the pre-industrial concentration? Is this more or less than the change in CO2 concentrations between glacial and interglacial periods during the ice age cycle? 150ppm higher Modern change is greater than the natural change between glacial and interglacial periods is about 100 -> doesn’t mean this amount of CO2 is unprecedented
Describe glacial-interglacial CO2 variations Glacial periods have lower CO2 concentrations whereas interglacial periods have higher CO2 concentrations
Are glacial-interglacial cycles in CO2 symmetrical? No, CO2 levels rise more quickly at the start of an interglacial period because of positive feedback loops and fall more slowly at the beginning of a glacial period
What is the approximate range of CO2 concentrations projected by IPCC for 2100? Low end is 500 ppm, high end is closer to 1,000 ppm
How far back in time do we have to go to see CO2 concentrations as high as today’s CO2 concentrations? 14-16 million years ago when the CO2 levels were 420-430 ppm (Cambrian 52 million years ago had 4,000 ppm)
Of the following trace gasses, which one is not able to absorb infrared radiation: Carbon Dioxide, Helium, Ozone, and Nitrous Oxide? Can you explain why? Helium cannot absorb infrared radiation because it is a monatomic gas with no molecular vibrations or rotations that would allow it to interact with infrared light
What makes a good climate proxy? Sensitive to climate, preserves climate signal, consistent and datable layers or records that allow reconstruction over time, high geographical coverage
How do you get climate information from a climate proxy? Through analysis Tree rings -> grown patterns Ice cores -> isotopic analysis of ice, dust concentration in air Sediments -> foraminifera to identify oxygen isotopes
List examples of 3 climate archives and explain their strengths and weaknesses. What are their time scales and spatial coverage? Ice cores, tree rings, manganese nodules/sea floor
Ice Cores up to 800,000 years, local/regional in Greenland/Antarctica 1. Strengths: high temporal, ice includes bubbles of past atmosphere 2. Weaknesses: ice flow can distort layers, limited to polar and glaciated regions
Tree rings 1000s of years, local/regional 1. Strengths: precisely dated, high resolution 2. Weaknesses: mostly sensitive to growing season conditions
Manganese nodules/sea floor geologic timescales, global 1. Strengths: extremely long term, reflect changes in ocean circulation, sedimentation, and productivity. 2. Weaknesses: dating can be imprecise, can have slow growth rates which limits temporal resolution
What are climate archives (give some examples) and why do we need them? What have we learned from climate proxies and archives about the Last Glacial Maximum (~ 18 to 21 thousand years ago)? They are natural records of info over past climates like tree rings, sediments, and ice cores. Important for understanding past climate trends, like how increased CO2 leads to higher temps. Also sea level, atmospheric composition, precipitation patterns.
How much lower was sea level during the LGM compared to today? 120m
Which archive takes you further back in time – corals or tree rings? Corals can go back centuries (up to 500,000 years) - tree rings only go back around 1,000 years
How do oxygen isotopes of water undergo fractionation in the hydrological cycle? By partitioning of isotopes between substances - Light molecules are more easily evaporated/melted due to less energy to break bonds -> prefer vapor phase - Heavy isotopes prefer liquid or solid phase - Temperature of the system controls separation
Why does the concentration of oxygen isotopes in glacial ice provide you with information on past temperature? - Cold air can hold less moisture. So air masses arriving in Greenland have cooled more, formed more precipitation, the remaining vapor is depleted in heavy isotopes - During warmer conditions more 18O remains and is deposited in snow
Why can we use oxygen isotopes from marine carbonates to infer global ice volume in the past? The more ice on land, the more the ocean gets enriched in ¹⁸O. Foraminifera build shells of CaCO3, δ¹⁸O in sea water determines the δ¹⁸O in shells. Ice on land, more δ¹⁸O in shells. Shells are then recovered in sediment cores
δ¹⁸O record over past glacial cycle isotopic fractionation due to temperature when the isotopes are incorporated in CaCO3. Shells have more ¹⁸O when ice sheets are present. Lower in the ocean -> higher in the atmosphere.
How have variations in solar insolation over the past 3 million years affected Earth’s climate? 1. Each orbital influence (part of Milankovitch cycle) has its own distinctive pattern of influence through time à they combine to vary sunlight on Earth 2. Drives climactic variability over the past 3 million years
What are the three components of Milankovitch forcing? Obliquity, Eccentricity, Precession
Obliquity tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation 1. 41,000 year cycles 2. Changes in the tilt suppress or amplify the seasons, mostly at the poles
Eccentricity shape of orbit around the sun 1. 100,000 and 400,000 year cycles 2. Magnify/suppress changes in the Earth-Sun distances à amount of incoming solar radiation
Precession direction of the Earth’s axis rotation (wobble of the Earth’s axis) 1. 20,000 year cycles 2. Also modulated by eccentricity, changes when North/South pole is pointed almost directly away from the sun
How does the Milankovitch cycle influence glaciations? To grow an ice sheet you need cool summers in the North -> Low obliquity and high eccentricity
What is the dominant period in the ice age cycles of the past 800 kyr? What was the dominant period between 1.8Myr and 800kyr ago? 1. Past 800 kyr: full cycles every 100kyr 2. 1.8Myr-800kyr: ever 40kyr
What is the long-term climatic trend of the Earth over the last 50 million years? 1. Cooling trend most likely related to tectonics 2. Transition from Greenhouse to Icehouse world
Why is the Pliocene Warm Interval of interest? Last time Earth's climate was significantly warmer than today but with similar CO₂ levels.
What has been observed in ice core records that differs between glacial and interglacial periods? 1. Glacial: low temperature, low GHG concentrations, high dust levels, slow accumulation 2. Interglacial: high temperatures, high GHG concentrations, low dust levels, faster accumulation
What are the timescales of ice sheet grow and decay in the last 400,000 years? 1. Grow slowly: 80-100kyr 2. Decay rapidly: 10-20kyr
What are some of the important nutrients for life in the sea? What limits biological primary productivity in the ocean? Photo synthesizers need Nitrogen, phosphorus, + micronutrients to grow. The supply of nitrate and phosphate as well as light limits biological primary productivity.
Does the biological pump vary spatially? What is the abundance of these nutrients in the surface of the subtropical gyres and the surface of the Southern Ocean? Nutrient availability varies spatially 1. Subtropical gyres: have low primary productivity due to nutrient scarcity 2. Southern Ocean: high macronutrients but limited micronutrients (specifically iron)
What is the biological pump for CO2 uptake by the ocean and what is its role in climate? In which chemical forms does carbon exist in the ocean? What is the mean pH of the ocean and which carbonate ion is the most abundant at this pH? Phytoplankton in the surface ocean use CO₂ for photosynthesis, forming organic carbon. Most of that organic carbon is recycled in the surface ocean, rest isexported to and stored in the deep ocean/sediment. Helps mitigate atmospheric warming
In which chemical forms does carbon exist in the ocean? What is the mean pH of the ocean and which carbonate ion is the most abundant at this pH? Exists as bicarbonate, carbonate, carbon dioxide, and dissolved organic carbon. Mean ocean surface pH= 8, bicarbonate is most abundant at this pH
In which form does anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere enter the ocean? The ocean acts as a carbon sink for the atmosphere and both try to reach an equilibrium to maintain the same partial pressure of CO2 . As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the CO2 travels to the ocean and is dissolved by water.
What is the physical/solubility/inorganic pump? When CO2 is dissolved, it forms carbonic acid which is then dissociated into H+ and bicarbonate ions. The release of H+ causes the pH of the ocean to decrease (acidify). The H+ also combines with carbonate ions (used for shells) and makes more bicarbonate
Where is the inorganic pump most effective in the ocean? (what limits absorption of CO2) The oceans capacity to absorb CO2 is limited by the availability of carbonate, so most effective in areas with high carbonate. These areas are mainly in the surface ocean production of organic material where sunlight and nutrients are readily available.
What will happen if we add more CO2 to the ocean? Ocean will become more acidic (lower pH) -> lower carbonate ion concentration, weakens ocean’s buffering ability. This disruption of marine ecosystems, less shells made, can't survive. More CO2, slower to absorb, accelerating global warming.
What is the biggest carbon reservoir on the planet? Approximately what is the relative proportion of carbon in the ocean and atmosphere? 1. Biggest carbon reservoir: sediments/rocks 2. Ocean stores 60x more carbon than the atmosphere
Is there more oxygen in the surface or deep ocean? Is there more carbon in the surface or the deep ocean? 1. More oxygen in the surface ocean than the deep ocean because of direct contact w/ the atmosphere and photosynthesis 2. Much more carbon in the deep ocean than the surface due to dead organisms.
Explain the concept and method to calculate residence time 1. Average time that an element/molecule/particle spends in a place in a steady state (input=output) 2. Residence time = reservoir (total moles) / input or output
How do most elements enter the ocean? River input and atmospheric deposition
Name one/a few element with long mean residence times and one/a few with short mean residence times? Long: Na+, highly soluble, contributes to high salinity Short: K+, due to its tendency to be incorporated into minerals, particularly those forming the oceanic crust, and because it's readily used by marine organisms.
How does the temperature of the deep ocean compare with the surface ocean? Where are the regions of deep water formation? How does their relative contribution compare to total deep water formation? Why is the ocean able to hold so much carbon? Deep ocean is much colder than surface ocean b/c of slow vertical mixing and a lack of sunlight penetration
Where are the regions of deep water formation? How does their relative contribution compare to total deep water formation? Deep water formation occurs in the Labrador and Greenland Seas (NH) about 60% pf total deep water and the Wendell and Ross seas off the coast of Antarctica (SH) about 30-40% of total deep water
Why is the ocean able to hold so much carbon? Surface ocean can respond quickly to changes in atmospheric CO2 because it easily dissolves in water. There is also the biological pump (CO2 to organic matter) and deep ocean storage. Cold water also dissolves CO2 more readily, then sinks to deep ocean.
Carbonate ion is called the “ocean buffer” because it reacts with H+ to form bicarbonate. Explain what this means for ocean pH and acidification. Why is this important for climate? When CO2 dissolves, it forms carbonic acid and then dissociates into H+ ions (and bicarbonate) that leads to a decreased pH. The carbonate ion is able to react with the H+ ions, preventing fast acidification. This process helps to remove CO2.
How does the formation of bicarbonate affect ocean creatures that use carbonate ion to form Calcium carbonate shells? CO2 acidifies the ocean and the H+ reacting with the carbonate ions decrease the concentration of the ions. These ions are important for marine organisms use carbonate ions to build shells. Harder to form shells, acidic water can dissolve shells
What is the minimum and maximum warming projected by IPCC for 2100? Minimum: 1.4°C Maximum: 4.4°C
What areas are expected to warm the most? Polar amplification: greater warming in the high latitudes because of climate feedbacks like the ice-albedo effect, lower lapse rate, atmospheric and oceanic currents transporting more heat to the poles
What areas are expected to warm the least? Oceans because they have a higher heat capacity
What areas are expected to receive more precipitation? Globally average water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation are projected to increase -> a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor - More at high latitudes and the equator
What areas are expected to receive less precipitation? subtropics because of increased temperature and evapotranspiration that isn’t balanced by increased precipitation
Do you think that the aerosol emissions will increase, decrease, or remain the same in the future? Or will some increase and some decrease? Explain your reasoning. Some aerosols will decrease (especially sulfates and industrial pollutants in developed regions) due to pollution-limiting policy, while others may increase (like dust and wildfire smoke in certain areas).
What determines that the aerosol emissions will increase, decrease, or remain the same in the future? The net trend depends on how effectively the world reduces pollution while also responding to climate-driven changes like increased droughts and wildfires. Policy choices and economic activity are what will dictate this.
What is the minimum and maximum sea level rise projected by IPCC for 2100? Min: 0.3m Max: 1.5m
Why is sea level rise projected to increase with global warming? Because increased temperatures cause thermal expansion of the ocean and the melting of land ice
What are the two processes that contribute to sea level rise? 1. Thermal expansion of the ocean 2. Melting of land ice
What is the biggest uncertainty that we have in predicting future sea level rise? Ice dynamics not fully captured in models
What are 3 catastrophic possibilities that could lead to rapid and extreme environmental changes? 1. WAIS or Greenland ice sheet rapid collapse -> huge sea level increase 2. Methane release from permafrost -> rapid positive feedback loop, more warming causes more methane release 3. Shutdown or extreme slowing of the AMOC
. Does global warming increase or decrease our chances to go into the next ice- age? Why is that? Explain your reasoning. Global warming strongly decreases the chance of entering a new ice age because high CO₂ concentrations prevent the cooling needed for ice sheets to form, even when orbital conditions would otherwise favor glaciation.
Why is future warming expected to be so pronounced in the Arctic? 1. Arctic warms ‘nearly 4x faster’ than the global average à polar amplification 2. Snow/sea ice-albedo feedback effect 3. Thinning ice 4. Advection to N. Atlantic 5. Storm-driven break up
What warming impacts have been observed in the Arctic thus far? 1. 12% loss of September sea ice per decade since 1979 2. Shifts wind patterns in the NH 3. Effect on coastlines & marine animals - Loss of ice-associated habitat - Shifts in prey availability - Alterations in timing/patterns of migrations
By how much approximately has the sea ice cover decreased in the Arctic Ocean over the past 40 years? How do we know? 12% loss of sea ice per decade à 48% loss in the past 40 years - Seen in satellite imaging
Describe some future impacts of warming in the future? Climate models project that summer sea ice in the Arctic Basin will retreat further and further away from most Arctic landmasses, opening new shipping routes and extending the navigation season in the Northern Sea Route by between 2 and 4 months
More impacts of warming - Shifts wind patterns in the N Hemisphere - Increased climate refugees with sea level rise - Effect on coastlines and coastal communities - Effect on marine animals
Why is Greenland so important and interesting with respect to climate change? 1. Greenland ice sheet holds enough ice to raise sea level by 7 meters 2. Holds climate history in ice cores 3. Meltwater could disrupt ocean currents (AMOC)
Why is Antarctica so important and interesting with respect to climate change? 1. West Antarctic: raise sea levels by 5m 2. East Antarctic: raise sea levels by 60m 3. Helps drive deep ocean circulation through deep water formation 4. Ice cores that go back 800,000+ years
The Antarctica ice shield is comprised of two ice shields, the East Antarctic and the West Antarctic Ice Shield. Which one is more susceptible to global warming? The West Antarctic Ice Shield because it rests on land below sea level
If (i) Greenland and (ii) the West Antarctic Ice Shield melted, how much approximately would they contribute to sea level rise, respectively? Greenland: 7m West Antarctic: 5m
When approximately was the onset of the Antarctic glaciation? 34 million years ago when the earth transitioned from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate
When approximately was the onset of the Northern Hemispheric glaciation? 2.7 million years ago -> Pleistocene Epoch -> led to interglacial cycles
Last Glacial Maximum The most recent geologic interval, which spanned 29,000 to 19,000 years ago, during the final stage of the Pleistocene Epoch. The Wisconsin Glaciation, particularly its later stages, coincided with this period of maximum glacial extent in North America
What are major impacts of future warming? 1. Rising temperatures 2. Rising sea levels 3. Melting ice sheets + glaciers 4. Ocean warming + acidification 5. Changes in precipitation
What regions of the globe are projected to be impacted the most negatively by future warming? Why? 1. Arctic + high latitudes à polar amplification 2. Small island states à risk of complete submersion 3. South and Southeast Asia (ie: Bangladesh) à dense populations in low-lying coastal areas and river deltas
What are type of locations that are sensitive or vulnerable to climate change? 1. Low-lying coastal areas 2. Polar/high latitudes 3. Arid/semi-arid regions 4. Coral reefs à bleaching from ocean warming + acidification
How might changes in the hydrological cycle affect human societies? 1. Water scarcity and stress 2. Agricultural disruption 3. Increased flooding 4. Health risks 5. Energy supply disruptions
Why are the Maldives or Venice sensitive to a warming world? 1. Sea level rise 2. Maldives: Archipelago nation with average elevation less than two meters above modern sea level 3. Venice: lowest part is only 64 centimeters above sea level
By approximately how much did carbon emissions increase over the second half of the 20th century? What is roughly the annual carbon emission rate (in Giga tons Carbon per year)? 300% increase 10 GtC/year
What are the main options to mitigate future warming? 1. Reduce carbon sources 2. Remove CO2 from the atmosphere 3. Radiative forcing geoengineering
What are three carbon sequestration options? Enhanced chemical weathering, forestation, carbon dioxide removal (direct air capture)
Enhanced chemical weathering 1. Natural process 2. Need to accelerate mining huge amounts of rocks 3. Resource intensive, very slow
Forestation 1. Low cost but not highly effective 2. Co-benefits significant 3. Need to stop deforestation
Carbon dioxide removal, Direct air capture 1. Attacks fundamental problem of increasing atmospheric CO2 2. Can remove CO2 anywhere, long-term storage is possible 3. Energy intensive and expensive 4. Can be costly
What is geo engineering? 1. Purposeful human alteration of the environment 2. Primarily involves intervention on geosystems 3. Radiative forcing geoengineering - Changing radiative balance of the planet 4. Carbon dioxide removal - Removing CO2 from the atmosphere
List a renewable energy source, its advantage and disadvantage Nuclear energy - Advantage: feasible but would need to be scaled rapidly - Disadvantage: finite resource, still no options anywhere for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel
How does iron ocean fertilization work? What is the main biogeochemical process iron fertilization takes advantage of? The ocean is limited in productivity by lack of iron, adding iron could enhance productivity, reducing CO2. NET effectiveness a significant question, side effects potentially serious, unlike other CDR techniques, increases ocean acidification.
Explain briefly the concept of “Space geo engineering” Form of solar radiation management that is implemented above the atmosphere Ex: Launching 1 mirror the size of Greenland, alternatively many mirrors
What is ‘Solar Radiation Management”? What are pros and cons? Increasing earth’s albedo, decreasing incoming solar radiation Pros: quicker, “cheap”, smaller spatial footprint Cons: potential for significant negative side effects, serious governance challenges, “termination”, doesn’t address ocean acidification
How does ‘stratospheric aerosol injections’ as geoengineering strategy work? What is the main process ‘stratospheric aerosol injection’ takes advantage of? 1. Inject sulfate aerosols into the tropical stratosphere 2. Winds will spread them around the world 3. Produces global cooling, similar to tropical volcanic eruptions 4. Requires regular injection (residence time of particles of 1-3 years)
Consequences of ‘stratospheric aerosol injection’ only temporarily cools, once the particles fall the temperatures would rapidly increase. Could have affects on precipitation, weather, sunlight, biological systems.
Created by: rowdirks
 

 



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