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Goods & Services ex2
goods exam
Question | Answer |
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Classification of forecasting Methods | Qualitative or Quantitative 1. Qualitative Methods can be: Judgemental or Market Research 2. Quantitative Methods can be: Time Series or Causal Methods |
Characteristics of Qualitative Methods | -More Subjective -Used when we don't have enough historical data |
Judgemental Mehotds and Examples | -Based on experienced and informed opinion -Examples: 1. Jury of Executive Opinion: experience of experts 2. Sales Force Automation: info from the mkt 3. Delphi: Expertise of researchers |
Market Research Methods and Examples | -Based on data collection and statistical analysis Examples: 1. Focus Group 2. Consumer Surveys |
Characteristics of Quantitative Methods | -Based on mathematical techniques -Require historical Data -More Objective |
Examples and characteristics of Quantitative Methods | Time Series Forecast: -Based on past (historical) demand -Assume future demand is reflected in past demand Causal Modeling Method -Demand influenced by 1 or more independent variables |
Advantages and Disadvantages of Causal Modeling as compared to time series methods | Advantages: -Better for long-range forecasting - " " predicting shifts (turning points) in data patterns -Can generate better understanding of the mechanisms influencing sales/demand Disadvantages: -Requires more data -Requires special expe |
Procedure of Causal Modeling using Regression Analysis | 1. Identify variables that explain what you think might explain what you are trying to forecast-initial regression model 2. Collect Data (observations) 3. Initial screening of data 4. Build regression model and test. Check that data meet necessary cond |
Reason why data should be screened initially | For problematic data points, in other words, observations that might need to be removed before doing the model development *Also check for extreme observations in the data set |