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Statistics Ch.4

4.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

TermDefinition
event any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure
simple event an outcome or an event that can't be further broken down into simpler components
sample space (for a procedure) consists of ALL possible simple events
P denotes a probability
A, B, and C denotes specific events
P(A) denotes the probability of event A occurring
Probability Limits Always express a probability as a fraction/decimal number btwn 0 and 1 - probability of an impossible event is 0 - probability of an event that's certain to occur is 1 - for any event A, probability of A is btwn 0 and 1 inclusive
An event is Unlikely if the probability is very small- 0.05 or less
An event is Rare if probability is less than 0.001
Law of Large Numbers As a procedure is repeated again and again, the relative frequency probability of an event tends to approach the actual probability
Subjective Probabilities the probability of event A is estimated by using knowledge of the relevant circumstances
Odds of an event occurring the ratio of the number of ways the event can occur (successes) to the number of ways the event can't occur (failures) a:b
odds against an event occurring ratio of the number of the ways an event cant occur (failures) to the number of ways the event can occur (successes) b:a
Payoff odds against event A occurring ratio of net profit (if you win) to the amount bet (net profit) : (amount bet)
Created by: Kristindene