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Lecture 1 EH

Economic History

QuestionAnswer
What are the causal effects of money supply changes? Maritime disasters in the Spanish empire
What are the effects of money supply changes? Expansionary policies are correlated with low GDP growth
Talk about 1942 voyage Columbian voyage to new world. Spanish exploit silver deposits 300 years silver coins shipped. money supply subjected to sea voyages. >30 losses. natural experiments
What were the effects of maritime disasters in the Spanish empire? - Prices adjusted slowly (price rigidity) - Real output contracted around 1% for every 1% reduction in money arrivals -External validity?
What are examples of rare events? -Financial crises -Pandemics -Wars
What are the economic consequences of pandemics and wars? -Consistent with neoclassical growth model -P leads to labor scarcity and abundant capital, real wages increase, return on capital decreases -Wars have lead to capital scarcity and lack of capital per worker=returns on capital increase
How long do post war recoveries take? Not enough historical data, but generally less than 2 decades and GDP returns back to normal. If war results in a deterioration of fundamental causes, long run growth is effected
Define systematic financial crisis Bank runs, sharp increases in default rates and large losses of capital that results in public intervention, bankruptcy or forced merger
What are the economic costs of systematic financial crises? -Normal recession 1-2% decrease in GDP -Financial crises recession >5% decrease in GDP
What are salient long cycles? -International capital and goods market integration -Inequality -Debt-to-GDP ratios -Distant more relevant than recent past
What is path dependency? Initial conditions and events have persistent effects. QWERTY keyboard, railway track gauge
Why did the industrial revolution start in 18th century England? Combination of factor prices: 1) wages were high 2) coal was cheap 3) capital was cheap/ i was low Incentive to improve energy intensive and labour substituting machines. This was an onset of modern economic growth
Why the difference in spinning wheels in England and France? Cost minimization effect. Not cost effective in France, employing more workers with old machines was cheaper given low french wages
Path dependency and historical events - No steady state from which to start and return - Disruptive events can push world economy onto new path: tech, geopolitics, climate, epidemics
Created by: janasultan
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