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Economic of Pop


Population group of people defined by legal status, shared experience, or current status, and to which every person clearly does or doesn't belong
Population Growth Births, Immigration, Borders Redrawn
Population Shrink Deaths, Emigration, Borders Redrawn
Vital Rate formal demographic measure of the # of events per unit of time
Total Fertility Rate # of Children that a newborn girl would have at current age specific if she survived to her 50th birthday (children/woman)
Fertility Rates 15-19, 20-24,...., 45-49
Current replacement level of TFR 2.1 below 2 because slightly less than 50% of children are daughters (must have more than 2 children to average 1 daughter) Not all children survive to 50th
2004 Most Populous Countries 1. China, 1.299 billion 2. India, 1.065 billion 3. US, 293 million
World Population Growth Effects 1. Much higher in poor countries (especially high in Africa and low in Europe) 2. Primarily the result of falling mortality 3. Unprecedented & unsustainable in Long Run 4. Destined to continue to grow even if fertility falls to replacement level
Stages of Current World Pop. Growth 1. High Fertility and Mortality, Low Growth 2. High Fertility and Growth, Low Mortality 3. Low Fertility, Mortality, and Growth
1980 Brazil Pop. Growth Example 1980, 119 million, growth at 2.3% per year Current rate in 1000 years, Pop. 1 quintrillion 8,500 per square meter Roughly half million is this room
How many people are too many When too many people exceed fixed resources Productive leads to Margin leads to Decrease production
Things that could affect economic well being Population 1. size 2.density 3. age structure 4. skill distribution
Subsistence 'Subsistence level' Food amounts are the minimum necessary to keep a person alive and functioning Calories/year a person needs to maintain activity
Surplus Cause of civilization Not just hunting and gathering Begins to inspire---> Technology---> economic productivity
Possible Goals when "choosing" an optimal Pop. 1. Share food level equally, select Pop. size to eat as well as possible 2. Unequal sharing of food, feed agri. workers, 'king' keeps surplus for different purposes 3. Equal share of food, keep all possible alive
Malthusian Food Model Size and growth of pop. size depends on food supply and agricultural methods Population grows faster then food production Opposes Boserup Food Model
Malthusian Model Assumptions (1798) 1. Technology, decrease return of labor in production (fixed land resources) 2. Behavior: people have more to eat, have more babies 3. people have more to eat, lower mortality and longer lives
Boserup Food Model agricultural methods depend on size of population Necessity is the mother of invention Opposes Malthusian Food Model
Smil, How Many People can the Earth Feed? Data Problematic 1. Crop acreage 2. Crop production/yield per acre 3. Off the books consumption and production (fishing, hunting, etc) 4. Dietary requirements vary (age, sex, height, etc) and very 'elastic' across & within Pop.
Smil Conclusion Enormous 'slack' in food production and distribution Small, feasible changes to reduce waste, increase production/efficiency, would allow to feed at least 2x current Pop.
Smil, Matters what we feed people 1.High meat diets very inefficient (like big cars) 2. High meat diets probably unfeasible on global scale (also like big cars)
Harden 'Tragedy of the Commons' 1968 1. Overuse of common property resources 2. Negative externalities from using commonly-owned property resources (Fish, Firewood, water, public land) 3. Congestion 4. Pollution 5. Long-term degradation of resource quality
Harden 'Tragedy of the Commons' solutions 1. Change incentives/ property rights/ prices (Keep laissez-faire) 2. Top-down rules & prohibitions/limits
2nd possible 'Tragedy of the Commons' Unrestricted access to childbearing
Age, Age Stucture, and Economic Transfers Economic variables that change predictably with age 1. Consumption levels (how much?) 2. Consumption pattern (What?) 3. Productivity 4. Saving 5. Public spending or investment requirments
Social Security 1. Inter-generation system, today's taxpayers pay for today's elders
Social Security Alternatives 1. Fully Funded 2. Pay As You Go (PAYGO
SS Fully Funded System assets are available to pay off future obligations. Part or every worker's salary into own account, invested, then return at retirment
SS PAYGO System Today's payments go directly to today's retirees No accumulating assets to back up Has a different rate of return for different birth cohorts because old-age dependency will start to rise after 2010
SS PAYGO Benifits 1. Retirees get $B per years 2. Workers pay their share of the bill 3. W Workers, R retires, each worker pays R*B/W=(R/W)*B=(old age dependency ratio)*B 4. Taxes fluctuate in years with change in age
SS PAYGO Contribution 1. Workers pay $T per year in taxes 2. Receipts divided evenly among this year's retirees 3. With W workers and R retirees, benefits=W*T/R 4. Taxes are fixed, benefits fluctuate with old-age dependency ratio
SS PAYGO Cohort 'Deal" benefits PAYGO 1.Call Dt the old-age dependency ratio in year t (changes over time 2. Ages 20-64 pay Dt*B per year 3. Over 65 receive $B per year
Internal Rate of Return bank interest rate at which you're indifferent between putting money in the bank and taking the deal
Dt old age dependency ratio
B Fixed benefit of money per year
Sx probability of surviving to age x
Keyfitz, Sensitivity Experiments Shows fertility is the only thing that affeccts Internal Rate of Return
SS OASDI OA= old age (pension) S= survivors (life insurance) D= disability (standard disability insurance)
Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME) average monthly taxable earnings over the highest paid 35 years of covered employment, indexing for inflation
Primary Insurance Amount (PIA) =.90(first $561 of AIME) + .32(next$2820 of AIME) + .15(rest of AIME)
SS Facts 1. Workers and employers pay SS taxes (6.2% per year) 2. You only pay SS taxes on part of earnings (about $100,000) 3. Not all employees are part of SS system (public school teachers in Miz) 4. Eligible with 40 quarters (credits) of covered employment
Normal Retirment Age 1. 65 if born before 1938 2. 65+2 months born before 1938 3. 65+4 months born before 1939 4. 66 born 1944-1954 5. 66+2 months born 1955 6. born after 1960
Measuring Immigration 1. Stocks (total# of foreign-born residents) 2. Vs. flows (new arrivals of foreign-born residents) 3. (new exits of foreign-born resident)
Foreign-Born not eligible for US citizenship at birth Native-born is opposite
US Immigration History: Waves Wave 1, before 1820 (england, scotland, Protestant Ireland , east coast settlement) Wave 2, 1820-Civil War (German, English, Irish, displaced by industrialization, Midwest areas) Wave 3 Civil War-WWI (Euros, Asians for western jobs railroad)
E.G. in 1890 1. 42% of NYC Foreign Born (1/3 German and Irish) 2. 40% Miwaukee (2/3 German) 3. 37% Minneapolis (1/2 Swedish & Norwegian)
1890 comparison 2000 1. 40-50% LA Foreign Born 2. 51% Miami-Dade County
US Immigration History: Waves Pause to current Pause, WWI-1965, (restrictions and quotas, Depression & war interruption, Cold War, increase Mex. & Latin America) Wave 4, 1965-+, (priority immediate relatives, shift in national orgins, Latin American & Asia)
Demographic Effects of Immigration 1. Increase in Pop (mostly felt in CA, TX, NY, FL, IL) 2. increase of age group 20-34 3. Change in race/ethnicity, mixed Pop
Current Census Profile, 2000 1. 11% foreign born 2. 1/2 from Latin America (more than 1/2 Mexico) 3. 1/4 Asia 4. Bimodal distribution on SSE characteristics (education)
Top 3 Immigrants 1. Mexico, 9 million 2. China, 1.5 million 3. Philippines, 1.4 million
Native-born Citizens 1. Permanent Legal Residents (Green Card) 2. Temporary Legal Residents (Visas, work/study)
Basic Economic Model of Immigration & Wages 1. 2+ locations 2. Diminishing return to labor 3. Wage offers, equal marginal product location 4. Workers locate in highest wage offer
Worker Wage Offer Effects, A---> B 1. More valuable relocation 2. Production in econ increases 3. Employers gain 4. Migrant gains
Worker 'A' story 1. 1000 firms in small country 2. Each firm 10 native employees 3. 100 new immigrants arrive, best wage offer 4. Main result, Immigrant & Employer gain, Native employees lose
I=PAT effect of population on enviroment depends on how people consume and produce (I)Human Impace= (P) product of population* (A) affluence* (T) technology
Youth Dependency ratio # of young dependents/ # middle-aged workers
Old-age dependency ratio # of old age dependents/ # of middle-aged workers
Age dependency ratio Youth+old-age= dependents per worker
Cohort group of people all born in the same time period
Created by: Niborhp