goods exam
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| Classification of forecasting Methods | Qualitative or Quantitative
1. Qualitative Methods can be: Judgemental or Market Research
2. Quantitative Methods can be: Time Series or Causal Methods
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| Characteristics of Qualitative Methods | -More Subjective
-Used when we don't have enough historical data
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| Judgemental Mehotds and Examples | -Based on experienced and informed opinion
-Examples:
1. Jury of Executive Opinion: experience of experts
2. Sales Force Automation: info from the mkt
3. Delphi: Expertise of researchers
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| Market Research Methods and Examples | -Based on data collection and statistical analysis
Examples:
1. Focus Group
2. Consumer Surveys
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| Characteristics of Quantitative Methods | -Based on mathematical techniques
-Require historical Data
-More Objective
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| Examples and characteristics of Quantitative Methods | Time Series Forecast:
-Based on past (historical) demand
-Assume future demand is reflected in past demand
Causal Modeling Method
-Demand influenced by 1 or more independent variables
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| Advantages and Disadvantages of Causal Modeling as compared to time series methods | Advantages:
-Better for long-range forecasting
- " " predicting shifts (turning points) in data patterns
-Can generate better understanding of the mechanisms influencing sales/demand
Disadvantages:
-Requires more data
-Requires special expe
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| Procedure of Causal Modeling using Regression Analysis | 1. Identify variables that explain what you think might explain what you are trying to forecast-initial regression model
2. Collect Data (observations)
3. Initial screening of data
4. Build regression model and test. Check that data meet necessary cond
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| Reason why data should be screened initially | For problematic data points, in other words, observations that might need to be removed before doing the model development
*Also check for extreme observations in the data set
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