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Goods & Services ex2

goods exam

Classification of forecasting Methods Qualitative or Quantitative 1. Qualitative Methods can be: Judgemental or Market Research 2. Quantitative Methods can be: Time Series or Causal Methods
Characteristics of Qualitative Methods -More Subjective -Used when we don't have enough historical data
Judgemental Mehotds and Examples -Based on experienced and informed opinion -Examples: 1. Jury of Executive Opinion: experience of experts 2. Sales Force Automation: info from the mkt 3. Delphi: Expertise of researchers
Market Research Methods and Examples -Based on data collection and statistical analysis Examples: 1. Focus Group 2. Consumer Surveys
Characteristics of Quantitative Methods -Based on mathematical techniques -Require historical Data -More Objective
Examples and characteristics of Quantitative Methods Time Series Forecast: -Based on past (historical) demand -Assume future demand is reflected in past demand Causal Modeling Method -Demand influenced by 1 or more independent variables
Advantages and Disadvantages of Causal Modeling as compared to time series methods Advantages: -Better for long-range forecasting - " " predicting shifts (turning points) in data patterns -Can generate better understanding of the mechanisms influencing sales/demand Disadvantages: -Requires more data -Requires special expe
Procedure of Causal Modeling using Regression Analysis 1. Identify variables that explain what you think might explain what you are trying to forecast-initial regression model 2. Collect Data (observations) 3. Initial screening of data 4. Build regression model and test. Check that data meet necessary cond
Reason why data should be screened initially For problematic data points, in other words, observations that might need to be removed before doing the model development *Also check for extreme observations in the data set
Created by: adelagu