| Question |
Answer |
| Quantitative Forecasting Methods |
Forecast is based on mathematical modeling. |
| Executive Opinion |
Forecasting method in which a group of managers collectively develop a forecast. |
| Market Research |
Approach to forecasting that relies on surveys and interviews to determine customer preferences. |
| Delphi Method |
Approach to forecasting in which a forecast is the product of a consensus among a group of experts. |
| Time Series Models |
Based on the assumption that a forecast can be generated from the information contained in a time series of data. |
| Time Series |
A series of observations taken over time. |
| Causal Models |
Based on the assumption that the variable being forecast is related to other variables in the environment. |
| Level or Horizontal Pattern |
Pattern in which data values fluctuate around a constant mean. |
| Trend |
Pattern in which data exhibit increasing or decreasing values over time. |
| Seasonality |
Any pattern that regularly repeats itself and is constant in length. |
| Cycles |
Data patterns created by economic fluctuations. |
| Random Variation |
Unexplained variation that cannot be predicted. |
| Naive Method |
Forecasting method that assumes next period's forecast is equal to the current period's actual value. |
| Simple Mean or Average |
The average of a set of data. |
| Simple Moving Average |
A forecasting method in which only n of the most recent observations are averaged. |
| Weighted Moving Average |
A forecasting method in which n of the most recent observations are averaged and past observations may be weighted differently. |
| Exponential Smoothing Model |
Uses a sophisticated weight average procedure to generate a forecast. |
| Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing |
Exponential smoothing model that is suited to data that exhibit a trend. |
| Seasonal Index |
Percentage amount by which data for each season are above or below the mean. |
| Linear Regression |
Procedure that models a straight-line relationship between two variables. |
| Correlation Coefficient |
Statistic that measures the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two variables. |
| Forecast Error |
Difference between forecast and actual value for a given period. |
| Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) |
Measure of forecast error that computes error as the average of the sum of the absolute errors. |
| Mean Squared Error (MSE) |
Measure of forecast error that computes error as the average of the squared error. |
| Forecast Bias |
A persistent tendency for a forecast to be over or under the actual value of the data. |
| Tracking Signal |
Tool used to monitor the quality of a forecast. |
Spanish 3
