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Decision Making II
Heuristic Decision Making
Question | Answer |
---|---|
What are heuristics? | Shortcuts or rules of thumb that usually have some basis in reality. Simple and efficient but not foolproof. |
Define Availability Heuristic. | Judge the likelihood of an event according to the case with which examples come to mind. Events that are easily remembered are judged more likely. |
When Ss were asked if words that being with "r" are more common than words with "r" in the third position, what were the results? | 70% say words starting with "r" are more common, but in reality 3x more words with "r" in the third position. |
What were the results of McElvie's (1997) famous name experiment? | The Ss believed the famous group to be larger but the nonfamous group was actually larger. |
What is illusory correlation? | Belief that there is a relationship when there is none (or it's weaker than believed)& selective attention plays a role. |
Define representativeness heuristic | Judge the likelihood that an event belongs to a class according to how much we think it resembles the class (i.e., judge according to representativeness or typicality). Judge the similarity of events under uncertainty. |
Importance of judgments involving sample size. | insensitivity to sample size leads to inaccurate judgments. |
When judging sequences, we can often fall victim to the gambler's fallacy. What is this exactly? | The belief that unexpected behaviors or outcomes will be “evened out” by opposite unexpected behaviors or outcomes later on. |
What is the base rate effect (fallacy)? | Occurs when we make judgments ignoring relevant prior knowledge. |